UK ILR Rule Changes 2026: Shabana Mahmood Announces New Settlement Rules

Shabana Mahmood – changes to settlement rules

Some while ago the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced some proposed changes to the rules for settlement (ie indefinite leave to remain), which were widely characterised as draconian. 

The typical period of leave that needs to be held before a migrant can apply for settlement is at present five years – with a few exceptions. The new proposals involved, amongst other things, a 10-year wait for settlement in many cases and a 15-year wait in some cases, and also an increased time period for settlement for successful asylum-seekers. And it rather looked as though Health and Care Workers were going to be particularly targeted. 

Could she introduce such changes if she was determined to do so, and how easy would it be for her? The answer to the first question is Yes, and the answer to the second question is likely to be Very, although it might cause some political dissatisfaction, not least in the governing Labour Party.

It is a curious feature of the British constitution that the Home Secretary/Home Office can make changes in immigration law very easily indeed. Some deep changes require an Act of Parliament but many other types of change do not – they can be made via the Immigration Rules, and these sail through Parliament with no impediment through the “negative resolution” procedure. Changes in the settlement period rules could be, and often have been, made in this way; some years ago, for example, the four-year rule for settlement was replaced by the five-rule we have at the moment. 

Despite what the law seems to imply, changes in the Immigration Rules do not specifically require a parliamentary vote. This is why we say it will be easy for her. A good example of this sort of thing is that on occasion the Home Secretary/Home Office has changed Rules overnight without any warning – and this is legal.

To put it short, these new rules are highly likely to get successfully through Parliament.

The different Immigration Rules specify the different time periods for settlement and, as we said above, the typical period is five years. For example, all kinds of Skilled Workers (including Health and Care workers) have such a five-year period. The Skilled Worker visa is by far the most popular kind of working visa, so any changes here are going to have a large impact. In the year ending June 2026, 49,205 visas were granted to main applicants and 70,900 to dependants, so we are talking about 120,000 migrants. 

But in recent previous years the figure was considerably higher, and that is why there is a substantial “queue” of people who, under the five-year rule, will qualify for settlement some time soon. 

This is one of the things that worries Ms Mahmood: a migrant who holds settlement is entitled to state benefits for which they qualify (unlike most of those who hold visas) and is also entitled to free NHS healthcare. This is going to cost the Government some money. 

But these demographic/economic analyses tend to be complex and there is more to it than that. Research by the Institute for Public Policy Research (a reliable source of statistics) paints a sharply different picture. The maths here are rather involved, and we cannot do better than quote Marley Morris, the IPPR Associate Director for Migration who says (albeit rather vaguely): “Our analysis suggests that over their lifetimes skilled migrants are estimated to make a net contribution of billions to the public finances”. This must surely tell us something important.

Anyway, so much for the mathematical technicalities, but there are also fairness and retrospectivity factors to take into account. Migrants may come to the UK on a kind of “five-year promise” to settlement. If they come here on that basis but after a couple of years the Home Office announces that it is now a ten-year promise it seems very unfair. 

In some cases migrants have even been able to successfully challenge such retrospective schemes; but whether they could do so or not in this case you would not have to be a top lawyer to identify the deep level of unfairness. Migrants may make a life plan for them and their families, come to the UK, and then the rug is suddenly pulled from under their feet and they have to change their plan completely.

There have recently been rumours that Ms Mahmood was at least partly susceptible to such arguments and was intending to soften her plans, and this turns out to be the case. On 2nd November she announced in Parliament her plans in detail, which she says are “guided above all by fairness”. (As she is a politician, by “fairness” she probably intends this to mean fairness to migrants and also fairness to the tax payer.)

And in a little rhetorical marketing piece she said: “Settled status is one of the most valuable rights this country can offer. Until now it has been given almost automatically. From today, it must be earned. Those who contribute most will settle fastest. Those who don’t play by the rules will be refused or wait much longer.” 

Well, make of this what you will, and these are the main points:

• There will be no 15-year settlement rule. 
• Health and Care workers who arrived in the UK before May 2025 and who earn at least £25,000 a year will still qualify for settlement under the five-year rule (as also will a couple of other categories).
• But in many other cases the five-year settlement rule will indeed be retrospectively changed to ten years – so ten years will be the “standard” route to settlement.
• Some really special “good quality” migrants will qualify for settlement after just three years (as is already the case now). 
• The ten-year route to settlement based on continuous lawful residence will be abolished.
• For some migrants, including those asylum-seekers who arrived via small boat journeys, there will be a new 20-year rule and in some of such cases this will extend to 30 years.
• Other asylum-seekers may be able to settle after 10 years or in some cases less.
• Family visa routes, the UK Ancestry route, and BN(O) routes will not be affected.
• EU Settlement Scheme routes will not be affected either.
• These rule changes are going to be introduced incrementally from December 2026.

This is a very broad outline, and there are complexities here and there. If you want specific advice about your situation we at GSN Immigration can advise you. 

Oliver Westmoreland

Senior Immigration Lawyer